富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company)公布了第二季度财报，显示了该行在继续转型之旅中的优势和挑战。首席执行官查理·沙夫(Charlie Scharf)强调了收费收入的增长以及信用卡和企业投资银行部门的战略改进。
尽管净利息收入和平均贷款有所下降，但该公司所有面向客户的业务的平均存款都出现了正增长。富国银行还宣布，计划在第三季度将普通股股息提高14%。
首席财务官Mike Santomassimo强调了财务方面的数据，包括非利息收入增长19%，信贷损失准备略有下降。然而，该银行还面临非利息支出和净贷款冲销的增加，特别是在商业房地产办公室投资组合中。
首席执行官查理?沙夫(Charlie Scharf)强调了强劲的收费Sed收入增长和战略改进。
信贷表现符合预期;co的改进消费者汽车和住房贷款组合。
计划将第三季度普通股股息提高14%。
净利息收入下降，而非利息收入同比增长19%。
平均贷款下降;所有面向客户业务的平均存款均出现增长。
由于经营亏损和收入相关补偿增加，非利息支出增加。
净贷款冲销增加，主要在商业地产办公组合。
2024年全年净利息收入预计比2023年低8-9%。
全年非利息支出预计约为540亿美元。
2024年全年非利息支出预计为540亿美元，高于此前预测的526亿美元。
资本状况依然强劲，可以将过剩资本返还给股东。
目标是有形普通股权益的可持续回报率(ROTCE)达到15%。
净利息收入和平均贷款下降。
增加非利息开支及净贷款冲销。
今年上半年FDIC特别评估的意外支出为3.36亿美元。
fee-ba增长强劲sed的业务。
所有面向客户业务的平均存款均出现正增长。
非利息收入较上年增长19%。
有限公司消费者银行和贷款收入下降了5%，而财富和投资管理收入增长了6%。
贷款需求和贷款余额继续下降。
信用卡投资组合损失增加。
新发信用卡的信用质量高于现有信用卡。
预计下半年财富管理收入将有所增长。
人工智能被用于呼叫中心和自动化手工流程。
强调了财富管理和投资银行部门的利润扩张潜力。
总之，富国银行(Wells Fargo)第二季度财报电话会议呈现了一幅挑战与进步并存的图景。该银行正在积极开展战略重点工作，并利用其强大的资本状况来提高股东价值。富国银行专注于效率、信贷质量和技术进步，正在应对复杂的经济形势，同时着眼于未来的增长。
富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company)第二季度财报显示，这家公司正处于转型之中，其战略重点是提高股东价值。InvestingPro的数据和提示为银行的财务状况和市场地位提供了进一步的背景。
InvestingPro数据:
富国银行(Wells Fargo)的市盈率为11.6倍，表明与近期盈利增长相比，其估值较低。
截至过去12个月，该公司的市净率为1.2截至2024年第二季度的第9个月，这可能会吸引价值导向的投资者。
收入增长一直很温和，在过去12个月里增长了3.46%截至2024年第二季度。
InvestingPro小贴士:
富国银行(Wells Fargo)是银行业的杰出参与者，并通过维持54家公司的股息支付，展示了其向股东回报价值的承诺nsecutive年。
该公司管理层积极的股票回购策略是一个看涨信号，表明该公司的股价正在上涨对公司未来业绩的信心。
这些见解，特别是该公司相对于盈利增长的低市盈率和强劲的股息支付历史，与富国银行宣布的增加普通股股息的计划一致。此外，该公司积极的股票回购计划凸显了管理层对银行内在价值的信念。对于希望获得更深入分析的投资者，InvestingPro提供了有关富国银行的额外提示，可在http://k1.fpubli.cc/file/upload/202407/15/4kvsneblm0j上访问。使用优惠码PRONEWS24，就可以获得一年一次的Pro和一年或两年一次的Pro+订阅最多10%的折扣。还有7个以上的InvestingPro提示，可以为与富国银行相关的投资决策提供进一步的指导。
接线员:欢迎，感谢您参加富国银行2024年第二季度收益电话会议。请注意，今天的通话正在录音中。现在我想把电话交给投资者关系部主任约翰·坎贝尔。先生，你可以开始会议了。
约翰·坎贝尔:大家早上好。感谢您今天接听我们的电话，我们的首席执行官查理·沙夫;我们的首席财务官迈克·桑托马西莫将讨论第二季度的业绩并回答你的问题。电话正在录音。在我们开始之前，我想提醒大家，我们第二季度的收益资料，包括发布、财务补充和演示文稿都可以在我们的网站上找到。我还想提醒大家，我们在今天的电话会议上可能会做出前瞻性的陈述，这些陈述受到风险和不确定性的影响。可能导致实际结果与预期存在重大差异的因素在我们的美国证券交易委员会文件中有详细说明，包括今天提交的8-K表格，其中包含我们的盈利材料。有关引用的任何非公认会计准则财务指标的信息，包括这些指标与公认会计准则指标的对账，也可以在我们的美国证券交易委员会文件和我们网站上提供的收益材料中找到。现在我把电话交给查理。
Charlie Scharf: Thanks, John. As usual, I'll make some brief comments about our second quarter results and update you on our priorities. I'll then turn the call over to Mike to review our results in more detail before we take your questions. So let me start with some second quarter highlights. Our financial performance in the quarter benefited from our ongoing efforts to transform Wells Fargo. We continue to generate strong fee-based revenue growth with increases across most categories compared to a year ago due to both the investments we're making in our businesses and favorable market conditions with particular strength in investment advisory, trading activities and investment banking. These results more than offset the expected decline in net interest income. Credit performance during the second quarter was consistent with our expectations. Consumers have benefited from a strong labor market and wage increases. The performance of our consumer auto portfolio continued to improve, reflecting prior credit tightening actions and we had net recoveries in our home lending portfolio. While losses in our credit card portfolio increased as expected, early delinquency performance of our recent vintages was aligned with expectations. In our commercial portfolios, losses continued to be driven by commercial real-estate office properties where we expect losses to remain lumpy. Fundamentals in the institutional-owned office real-estate market continued to deteriorate as lower appraisals reflect the weak leasing market in many large metropolitan areas across the country. However, they still remain within the assumptions we made when setting our allowance for credit losses. We continue to execute on our efficiency initiatives, which has driven headcount to decline for 16 consecutive quarters. Average commercial and consumer loans were both down from the first quarter. The higher interest-rate environment and anticipation of rate cuts continued to result in tepid commercial loan demand, and we have not changed our underwriting standards to chase growth. Balanced growth in our credit card portfolio was more than offset by declines across our other consumer portfolios. Average deposits grew modestly from the first quarter with higher balances in all of our consumer-facing lines of businesses. Now, let me update you on our strategic priorities, starting with our risk and controller. We are a different Wells Fargo from when I arrived. Our operational and compliance risk and control build-out is our top priority and will remain so until all deliverables are completed and we embed this mindset into our culture, similar to the discipline we have for financial and credit risk today. We continue to make progress by completing deliverables that are part of our plans. The numerous internal metrics we track show that the work is clearly improving our control environment. While we see clear forward momentum, it's up to our regulators to make their own judgments and decide when the work is done to their satisfaction. Progress has not been easy, but tens of thousands of my partners at Wells Fargo have now worked tirelessly for years to deliver the kind of change necessary for a company of our size and complexity, and we will not rest until we satisfy the expectations of our regulators and the high standards we have set for ourselves. While we have made substantial changes and have meaningfully improved our control environment, the industry operates in a heightened regulatory oversight environment, and we remain at risk of further regulatory actions. We are also a different Wells Fargo in how we are executing on other strategic priorities to better serve our customers and help drive higher returns over time. Let me highlight a few examples of the progress we're making. We're diverging revenue sources and reducing our reliance on net interest income. We are improving our credit card platform with more competitive offerings, which is both - which is important both for our customers and strategically for the Company. During the second quarter, we launched two new credit cards, a small-business card and a consumer card. Since 2021, we have launched nine new credit cards and are almost complete in our initial product build-out. The momentum in this business is demonstrated by continued strong credit card spend and new account growth. We are not lowering our credit standards, but see that our strong brand and a great value proposition are being well-received by the market. Building a large credit card business is an investment as new products have significant upfront costs related to marketing, promo rates, onboarding and allowance, which drive little profitability in the early years. But as long as our assumptions on spend, balanced growth, and credit continue to play out as expected, we expect the card business to meaningfully contribute to profit growth in the future as the portfolio matures. We have been methodically growing our corporate investment bank, which has been a priority and continues to be a significant opportunity for us. We are executing on a multi-year investment plan while maintaining our strong risk discipline and our positive momentum continues. We have added significant talent over the past several years and we'll continue to do so in targeted areas where we see opportunities for growth. Fernando Rivas recently joined Wells Fargo as Co-CEO of Corporate Investment Banking. Fernando has deep knowledge of our industry and his background and skills complement the terrific team Jon Weiss has put together. While we view our work here as a long-term commitment, we expect to see results in the short and medium term and are encouraged by the improved performance we've already seen with strong growth in investment banking fees during the first half of the year. In our Wealth and Investment Management business, we have substantially improved advisor retention and have increased the focus on serving independent advisers and our consumer banking clients, which should ultimately help drive growth. In the commercial Bank, we are focused on growing our treasury management business, adding bankers to cover segments where we are underpenetrated, and delivering our investment banking and markets capabilities to clients and believe we have significant opportunities in the years ahead. And we continue to see significant opportunities for consumer, small and business banking franchise to be a more important source of growth. Let me give you just a few examples some of the things we're doing here. We continue to optimize and invest in our branch network. While our branch count declined 5% from a year ago, we are being more strategic about branch location strategy. We are accelerating our efforts to refurbish our branches, completing 296 during the first half of this year, and are on track to update all of our branches within the next five years. As part of our efforts to enhance the branch experience, we're also increasing our investment in our branch employees and improving technology, including a new digital account opening experience, which has been positive for both our bankers and our customers. We continue to have strong growth in mobile users with active mobile customers up 6% from a year ago. A year after launching Fargo, our AI-powered virtual assistant, we have had nearly 15 million users and over 117 million interactions. We expect this momentum to continue as we make further enhancements to offer our customers additional self-service features and value-added insights, including balanced trends and subscription spending. Looking ahead, overall, the U.S. economy remains strong, driven by a healthy labor market and solid growth. However, the economy is slowing and there are continued headwinds from still elevated inflation and elevated interest rates. As managers of a large complex financial institution, we think about both the risks and the opportunities and work to be prepared for the downside while continually building our ability to serve customers and clients. The actions we have taken to strengthen the Company have helped prepare us for a variety of economic environments, and while risks exist, we see significant opportunities in front of us. Our commitment and the progress we are making to build an appropriate operational and compliance risk management framework is foundational for our Company, and we will continue to prioritize and dedicate all necessary resources to complete our work. We have a diversified business model, see opportunities to build a broader earnings stream, and are seeing the early progress in our results. And we've maintained strong financial risk disciplines and a strong balance sheet. Operating with a strong capital position and - in anticipation of the uncertainty the stress test regime imposes on large banks and the potential for increases to our regulatory capital requirements resulting from basel III finalization has served us well. It also allows us to serve our customers' financial needs and we remain committed to prudently return excess capital to our shareholders. As we previously announced, we expect to increase our third quarter common stock dividend by 14% to $0.40 per share, subject to the approval by the Company's Board of Directors at its regularly scheduled meeting later this month. We repurchased over $12 billion of common stock during the first half of this year, and while the pace will slow, we have the capacity to continue repurchasing stock. I'm proud of the progress we continue to make and thankful to everyone who works at Wells Fargo. I'm excited about the opportunities ahead. I'll now turn the call over to Mike.
Mike Santomassimo: Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Net income for the second quarter was $4.9 billion, or $1.33 per diluted common share. EPS grew from both the first quarter and a year ago, reflecting the solid performance in our fee-based businesses as we benefited from the market environment and the investments we've been making. We also continue to focus on driving efficiency across the Company. I will also note that our second quarter effective income tax rate reflected the impact of the first quarter adoption of the new accounting standard for renewable energy tax credit investments, which increased our effective tax rate by approximately 3 percentage points versus a year ago. This increase in the effective tax rate had a minimal impact on net income since it had an offsetting increase to non-interest income. Turning to Slide 4. As expected, non-interest income was down - net interest income was down $1.2 billion, or 9% from a year ago. This decline was driven by higher funding costs, including the impact of lower deposit balances and customers migrating to higher-yielding deposit products in our consumer businesses and higher deposit costs in our commercial businesses as well as lower loan balances. This was partially offset by higher yields on earning assets. Net interest income declined $304 million, or 2% from the first quarter. Given the higher rate environment and neat commercial loan demand, loan balances continue to decline as expected. We saw positive trends, including average deposit balances growing from the first quarter with growth in all of our customer-facing businesses, including within our consumer business. Customer migration to higher-yielding alternatives was also lower in the quarter. This slowed the pace of growth in deposit pricing with our average deposit cost up 10 basis points in the second quarter after increasing 16 basis points in the first quarter. If the Fed were to start cutting rates later this year, we expect that deposit pricing will begin to decline with the most immediate impact from new promotional rates in our consumer business and standard pricing for commercial deposits where pricing moved faster as rates increased, and we would expect betas to also be higher as rates decline. On Slide 5, we highlight loans and deposits. Average loans were down from both the first quarter and a year ago. Credit card loans continue to grow while most other categories declined. I'll highlight specific drivers when discussing our operating segment results. Average deposits were relatively stable from a year ago as growth in our commercial businesses and corporate funding offset declines in our consumer businesses, driven by customers migrating to higher-yielding alternatives and continued consumer spending. Average deposits grew $4.9 billion in the first quarter. Commercial deposits have grown for three consecutive quarters as we've successfully attracted clients' operational deposits. After declining for nearly two years, consumer deposit balances grew modestly from the first quarter. We've seen outflows slow as many rate-seeking customers in Wealth and Investment Management have already moved into cash alternative products and we've successfully used promotion and retention-oriented strategies to retain and acquire new balances in consumer small and business banking. These improved deposit trends allowed us to reduce higher-cost market funding. The migration from non-interest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits was similar to last quarter with our percentage of non-interest-bearing deposits declining 26% in the first quarter to 25%. Turning to non-interest income on Slide 6. Non-interest income increased 19% from a year ago with growth across most categories, reflecting both the benefit of the investments we've been making in our businesses as well as the market conditions as Charlie highlighted. This growth more than offset the expected decline in net interest income with revenue increasing from a year ago, the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. I will highlight the specific drivers of this growth when discussing our operating segment goals. Turning to expenses on Slide 7. Second quarter non-interest expense increased 2% from a year ago, driven by higher operating losses, an increase in revenue-related compensation, and higher technology and equipment expense. These increases were partially offset by the impact of efficiency initiatives, including lower salaries expense and professional and outside services expense. Operating losses increased from a year ago and included higher customer remediation accruals for a small number of historical matters that we're working hard to get behind us. The 7% decline in non-interest expense in the first quarter was primarily driven by seasonally higher personnel expense in the first quarter. Turning to credit quality on Slide 8. Net loan charge-offs increased 7 basis points from the first quarter to 57 basis points of average loans. The increase was driven by higher commercial net loan charge-offs, which were up $127 million in the first quarter to 35 basis points of average loans, primarily reflecting higher losses in our commercial real-estate office portfolio. While losses in the commercial real-estate office portfolio increased in the second quarter after declining last quarter, they were in line with our expectations. As we have previously stated, commercial real estate office losses have been and will continue to be lumpy as we continue to work with clients. We continue to actively work to derisk our office exposure, including a rigorous monitoring process. These efforts help to reduce our office commitment by 13% and loan balances by 9% from a year ago. Consumer net loan charge-offs increased $25 million from the first quarter to 88 basis points of average loans. Auto losses continued to decline, benefiting from the credit-tightening actions we implemented starting in late 2021. The increase in credit card losses was in line with our expectations as older vintages are no longer benefiting from pandemic stimulus as more recent vintages - and as more recent vintages mature. importantly, the credit performance of our newer vintages has been consistent with our expectations, and we currently expect the credit card charge-off rate to decline in the third quarter. Non-performing assets increased 5% from the first quarter, driven by the higher commercial real estate office non-accruals. Moving to Slide 9. Our allowance for credit losses was down modestly from the first quarter, driven by declines across most asset classes, partially offset by a higher allowance for credit card loans driven by higher balances. Our allowance coverage for total loans has been relatively stable over the past four quarters as credit trends remain generally consistent. Our allowance coverage for our commercial real estate office portfolio has also been relatively stable at approximately 11% for the past several quarters. Turning to capital liquidity on Slide 10. Our capital position remains strong and our CET1 ratio 11% continue to be well above our current 8.9% regulatory minimum plus buffers. We're also above our expected new CET1 regulatory minimum plus buffers of 9.8% starting in the fourth quarter of this year as our stressed capital buffer is expected to increase from 2.9% to 3.8%. We repurchased $6.1 billion of common stock in the second quarter, and while the pace will slow, we have the capacity to continue to repurchase common stock as Charlie highlighted. Also, we expect to increase our common stock dividend in the third quarter by 14%, subject to Board approval. Turning to our operating segments, starting with Consumer Banking and Lending on Slide 11. Consumer, small and business banking revenue declined 5% from a year ago, driven by lower deposit balances and the impact of customers migrating to higher-yielding deposit products. Home lending revenue was down 3% from a year ago due to lower net interest income as loan balances continued to decline. Credit card revenue was stable from a year ago as higher loan balances driven by higher point-of-sale volume and new account growth was offset by lower other fee revenue. Auto revenue declined 25% from last year, driven by lower loan balances and continued loan spread compression. Personal lending revenue was down 4% from a year ago, driven by lower loan balances and loan spread compression. Turning to some key business drivers on Slide 12. Retail mortgage originations declined 31% from a year ago, reflecting our focus on simplifying the home lending business as well as the decline in the mortgage market. Since we announced our new strategy at the start of 2023, we have reduced the headcount in home lending by approximately 45%. Balances in our auto portfolio declined 14% compared with a year ago, driven by lower origination volumes, which were down 23% from a year ago, reflecting previous credit tightening actions. Both debit and credit card spend increased from a year ago. Turning to Commercial Banking results on Slide 13. Middle Market Banking revenue was down 2% from a year ago driven by lower net interest income due to higher deposit costs, partially offset by growth in treasury management fees. Asset-based lending and leasing revenue decreased 17% year-over-year, including lower net interest income, lower lease income, and revenue from equity investments. Average loan balances were down 1% compared with a year ago. Loan demand has remained tepid, reflecting the higher for longer rate environment in a market where competition has been more aggressive on pricing and loan structure. Turning to Corporate and Investment Banking on Slide 14. Banking revenue increased 3% from a year ago, driven by higher investment banking revenue due to increased activity across all products, partially offset by lower treasury management results driven by the impact of higher interest rates on deposit accounts. Commercial real estate revenue was down 4% from a year ago, reflecting the impact of lower loan balances. Markets revenue grew 16% from a year ago, driven by strong performance in equities, structured products and credit products. Average loans declined 5% from a year ago as growth in markets was more than offset by reductions in commercial real estate, where originations remain muted and we've strategically reduced balances in our office portfolio as well as declines in banking where clients continue to access capital goods funding. On Slide 15, Wealth and Investment Management revenue increased 6% compared with a year ago. Higher asset-based fees driven by an increase in market valuations were partially offset by lower net interest income, reflecting lower deposit balances and higher deposit costs as customers reallocated cash into higher-yielding alternatives. As a reminder, the majority of WIM advisory assets are priced at the beginning in the quarter, so third quarter results will reflect market valuations as of July 1st, which were up from both a year ago and from April 1st. Slide 16 highlights our corporate results. Revenue grew from a year ago due to improved results from our venture capital investments. Turning to our 2024 outlook for net interest income and non-interest expense on Slide 17. At the beginning of the year, we expected 2024 net interest income to be approximately 7% to 9% lower than full-year 2023. During the first half of this year, the drivers of net interest income largely played out as expected with net interest income down 9% from the same period a year ago. Compared with where we began the year, our current outlook reflects the benefit of fewer rate cuts as well as higher deposit balances in our businesses than what we had assumed in our original expectations, which has helped us reduce market funding. Deposit costs increased during the first half of this year as expected, but the pace of the increase has slowed. However, late in the second quarter, we increased pricing in Wealth and Investment Management on sweep deposits and advisory brokerage accounts. This change was not anticipated in our original guidance, federal lines rates paid-in money market funds and is expected to reduce net interest income by approximately $350 million this year. Our current outlook also reflects lower loan balances. At the beginning of the year, we assumed a slight decline in average loans for the full year, which reflected modest growth in commercial and credit card loans in the second half of the year after a slow start to the year. As we highlighted on our first quarter earnings call, loan balances were weaker than expected and that trend continued into the second quarter. We expect this underperformance to continue into the second half of the year with loan balances declining slightly from second quarter levels. As a result of these factors, we currently expect our full-year 2024 net interest income to be in the upper half of the range we provided in January, or down approximately 89% from full-year 2023. We continue to expect net interest income will trough towards the end of the year. We are only halfway through the year and many of the factors driving net interest income are uncertain, and we will continue to see how each of these assumptions plays out during the remainder of the year. Turning to expenses. At the beginning of this year, we expected our full-year 2024 non-interest expense to be approximately $52.6 billion. We currently expect our full-year 2024 non-interest expense to be approximately $54 billion. There are three primary drivers for this increase. First, the equity markets have outperformed our expectations, driving higher revenue-related compensation expense in Wealth and Investment Management. As a reminder, this is a good thing as these higher expenses are more than offset by higher non-interest income. Second, operating losses and the other customer remediation-related expenses have been higher during the first half of the year than we expected. As a reminder, we have outstanding litigation, regulatory, and customer remediation matters that could impact operating losses during the remainder of the year. Finally, we did not anticipate the $336 million of expense in the first half of the year for the FDIC special assessment, which is now included in our updated guidance. We'll continue to update you as the year progresses. In summary, our results in the second quarter reflected the progress we're making to transform Wells Fargo and improve our financial performance. Our strong growth in fee-based businesses offset the expected decline in net interest income. We made further progress on our efficiency initiatives. Our capital position remains strong, enabling us to return excess capital to shareholders, and we continue to make progress on our path to a sustainable ROTCE of 15%. We will now take your questions.
接线员:[接线员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Jefferies的Ken Usdin。您的电话接通了。
Ken Usdin:非常感谢。早上好。迈克，我想知道你是否能就你提出的关于存款成本方面的变化提供更多的细节。首先，我想，相对于你所看到的12个基点的生息成本增长，这比17%的增长要低，你对未来的预期如何?那么，横扫式定价是否也会影响未来的数字呢?谢谢你！
Mike Santomassimo:是的。谢谢你,肯。是的，我的意思是，全面定价将包括在未来的价格中，你看到，基本上是一个月的价格。我们在6月份做出了改变，所以你已经看到了大约三分之一的季度影响已经包含在这个数字中。听着，我想当你深入研究矿床方面的情况时，我会说几句话。第一，总体而言，我们没有看到存款总体定价的压力。从消费者的角度来看，这种已经发生了一段时间的从储蓄或定期存单的转移仍在发生，但速度较慢。你可以看到，在过去的几年里，它在上一两个季度相当稳定，但当你看这个季度时，它肯定在放缓。所以我预计你们仍然会看到更多的移民，但随着我们展望未来，移民的速度会继续放缓。在批发方面，我们的价格已经有一段时间很有竞争力了，情况就是这样。因此，我们很高兴地看到，我们能够增加良好的业务存款。考虑到竞争性的定价，短期内会给NII带来一些压力，但这些存款在很长一段时间内会非常有价值，尤其是在利率开始回落的时候。总的来说，我认为积极的一面是，你看到各行各业的存款在很长一段时间以来首次出现增长，这种向高收益替代品的转移正在放缓。因此，我们将看到今年剩余时间的发展情况，但我认为有一些好的积极趋势正在出现。
肯·乌斯丁:很好。谢谢你！这只是一个后续问题。收费非常好，交易业务继续显示出它正在占据市场份额。我想我们如何理解如何衡量未来，对吧，与集团正在做的事情相比?你们在这一点上表现得非常出色。就市场份额的增长而言，您认为自己的情况如何?您认为这种新的交易方式的可持续性如何?谢谢。
Mike Santomassimo:是的。不，我来接，查理愿意的话可以插话。当你观察任何一个季度的交易时，它都会反弹，对吧?所以你不能把任何一个季度都看成直线。所以你们往后看的时候我会小心的。但我认为好的一面是，我们一直在有条不紊地对所有资产类别进行投资，包括外汇、信贷、股票和其他领域，但我们每个季度都在以增量的方式从这些投资中获益。我认为，我们的业务仍然受到资产上限的限制。因此，如果没有资产上限，我们的资产增长或为客户资产融资的水平就不会达到同样的水平，这也会推动更多的交易流量。所以我想说，我们仍在有条不紊地建立它，我们应该有机会在一段时间内以谨慎的方式发展它。但任何一个季度都可能出现小幅反弹，这取决于市场或某一资产类别的情况。我们从客户那里得到了很好的接待，因为我们与他们接触得更多，看到他们给我们带来了更多的流量。
查理·沙夫:这是查理。让我补充几件事，你知道，当我们考虑我们正在做的事情来投资我们的银行专营权时，无论是市场还是投资银行专营权，它都不是基于风险的。实际上，它关注的是交易方面的客户流动，它关注的是扩大覆盖范围和提高银行方面的产品能力。所以我们关注的是——我们也非常非常关注整体回报，你可以想象，就像所有其他大型金融机构一样。因此，当我们看到我们的进展时，我们确实看到了所有不同类别的份额，并希望看到这些份额继续上升。因此，当你看到市场上存在的波动时，我们看到的是一个持续的增长水平，认识到我们无法控制季度与季度之间的波动。
肯·乌斯丁:好的，明白了。谢谢你！
接线员:下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的约翰·潘卡里。先生，您的电话接通了。
约翰·潘卡里:早上好。你有信心NII会在年底或下半年触底。也许你可以告诉我们，是什么让你有信心维持你的观点考虑到你提到的贷款增长动态以及你刚刚提到的融资成本和利率背景。如果你能给我们讲讲你对拐点的信心，我猜2025年的拐点意味着什么。谢谢。
Mike Santomassimo:是的。我们不会过多地讨论2025年，约翰，但当你看到发生了什么，你会看到这种迁移的速度在沉积侧流动，正如我之前提到的。所以随着时间的推移，你会看到更多的稳定性。一旦美联储开始降息(市场预计将在今年晚些时候降息)，你就会开始看到存款基数批发端的贝塔系数下降。随着证券和贷款的增加，你会继续看到资产方面逐渐的重新定价。所以你要准确地判断低谷是在哪一个季度。有时可能会有点困难，但当你看到它的所有组成部分时，我们仍然对能够在未来几个季度看到这一点感到非常满意。
约翰·潘卡里:好的。谢谢你,迈克。如果我直接跳到资本回购，我的意思是，你本季度回购了大约61亿美元，与第一季度相似。你表示会放慢步伐。也许你可以给我们一些颜色关于我们应该如何考虑这种适度，以及在这一点上可以持续多久以及多久你才能回到你之前的运行速度?
查理·沙夫:是的，让我试一试，迈克，然后你可以给这个上色。听着，我认为，当你审视我们的资本运行情况时，正如我在事先准备好的发言中提到的，我们一直在努力预测，我们发现SEB的方式存在的不确定性，以及巴塞尔协议III最终出台的不确定性。这两件事的现实是我们知道今年的SEB在这一点上的位置。我们仍然不知道巴塞尔协议III的最终结果。所以我认为，当我们今天坐在这里的时候，我们将继续——我们将在短期内对资本回报持保守态度，直到我们更多地了解巴塞尔协议III最终将在哪里结束，然后我们可以更具体地了解这对资本回报意味着什么。所以我认为我们只是想要非常务实。现实情况是，随着我们盈利能力的增强，我们仍在产生大量资本和合理规模的股息。鉴于我们面临诸多限制，我们剩余的资本产出大部分将用于资本回报，但我们希望看到《巴塞尔协议III》的最终结果。
约翰·潘卡里:好的。谢谢你！
接线员:下一个问题来自美国银行的易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉。先生，您的电话接通了。
ibrahim Poonawala:大家早上好。先做一个后续，迈克和查理谈资本。在你等待巴塞尔协议和透明度的过程中，现在11%的回报率是否符合要求，至少你没有给出指引，但在我们考虑回购的步伐时，或者CET1低于11%是否仍然比9.6%的最低水平有很大的缓冲?我希望你能从资本回报的角度来考虑这个比率。
查理·沙夫:我认为我们所处的位置加了一点，可能不是减了一点，但加一些可能是目前正确的位置。记住，SEB比我们预期的要高，这是我们考虑的因素。因此，这就是我们现在放慢回购步伐的原因。但是，希望我们能对巴塞尔协议III有更多的了解。我们知道你所知道的，然后我们会更清楚我们认为未来会是什么样子。但总的来说，我们仍有回购的能力。一如既往，我们要谨慎行事。
易卜拉欣·普那瓦拉:明白。然后是费用。所以我得到了费用指南的增加，但是提醒我们，也许有什么变化吗，查理，从你的第一个关于费用弹性这是财富理论中围绕效率收益的重要部分，这应该导致15%的ROTCE的路径?作为指南的一部分，你对后半部分的费用收入有什么期望，比如它是否假设IBA的交易水平有所提高?谢谢你！
查理·沙夫:我先讲第一部分。我很感谢你问这个问题。我认为，就我们的未来而言，在我们考虑继续提高效率的机会时，什么都没有改变。今天的情况与昨天或上个季度没有什么不同。随着我们增加对今年的估计，它实际上反映了三大类。一个是与我们的财富和投资管理业务相关的可变费用，我们的收入较高，因此支出也较高。正如迈克经常指出的那样，这实际上是一件好事，尽管它嵌入了费用线，导致数字上升。第二件事是，我们上半年的客户补救和联邦存款保险公司的费用比我们预期的费用指导时要高。关于客户补救措施，我们已经说过，它们不是新项目。它们是历史物品。我们离这些事情的最终结果越来越近。当这种情况发生时，像回复率这样的事情，确保我们已经确定了所有的人口数量，这就是我们所做的。但这确实是历史问题，而不是我们在商业发展中所看到的内在问题。所以剩下的是公司的剩余收益，抱歉，是公司的费用基础，这和我们预期的一样。因此，当我们坐在这里展望未来时，我过去所做的所有陈述仍然是正确的，那就是我们没有达到我们需要的效率。我们专注于投资发展业务。我们专注于花费必要的资金来建立正确的风险和控制基础设施，我们专注于提高公司的效率，这一杠杆将一如既往地保持不变。
ibrahim Poonawala:明白了。你认为后半部分的费用会保持高企是指导方针的一部分吗?
Mike Santomassimo:是的。我认为股票市场和今天差不多，是的，它仍然保持在相当高的水平。
ibrahim Poonawala:明白了。非常感谢。
接线员:下一个问题来自瑞银集团的埃里卡·纳加里安。您的电话接通了。
Erika Najarian:大家好。早上好。首先，我想给这个问题一个背景，因为我不想孤立地问这个问题，因为它看起来很俗气，但事实并非如此。因此，该股下跌了7.5%，如果我将市场共识置于NII区间的高端至9%，这意味着市场共识将单独调整3.5%。这就是为什么我要问这个关于费用的问题。所以你的费用比你最初的指南增加了14亿美元。你列出了这三个要点你量化了FDIC的特别评估。我想，我只是想知道，如果你能给我们更多的细节，关于补救费用和op损失比你最初的预期增加了多少，因为我认为市场想要了解的是，PP -你知道，NII，好的，我们明白了，这是因为存款重新定价。但是核心，你知道，核心PPNR在那之外依次上升，对吧?我只是想确定每股收益是否会像市场所显示的那样下降。
Mike Santomassimo:是的。不,艾丽卡。这是迈克。谢谢你的问题。我们在附录中给了你们经营损失线，你们可以看到。如果你-基于我们在一月份所说的，如果你假设全年的13亿美元只是在所有季度平均分配，你可以看到，经营亏损从年初到目前为止比这一比率增加了大约5亿美元。这就是我们对今年上半年影响的大致思考方式。
查理·沙夫:然后你把FDIC加进去。
Mike Santomassimo:对。其余部分大致是财富管理方面与收入相关的支出。
查理·沙夫:这就是为什么，艾瑞卡，当我之前说的时候，当你看是什么推动了费用指南的增长，这是第一和第二季度的补救措施。这是你们看到的FDIC费用，这是可变费用的增加。一切都如我们所料。
Erika Najarian:明白了。好吧，这说得通。我想从这里谈谈你们对信贷质量的看法。看来你会在第二季度继续释放储备。这是否意味着你觉得你已经解决了大部分与商业地产相关的问题，当然，经济没有进一步恶化，我们应该如何看待准备金相对于冲销的轨迹?
查理·沙夫:嗯，当你说——嗯，我认为当我们考虑储备时，你必须把它分成不同的部分。我们在部分消费者业务上的敞口正在下降。根据我们所做的承保变更，不仅仅是余额，还有实际损失。这就是导致消费者损失准备金减少的原因。在信用卡方面，这一增长实际上是由余额驱动的。所以有两种截然不同的动态在进行发行只是代表了一个较小的高信用质量的信贷组合。然后在批发方面，我们看到的损失和CIB办公室CRE投资组合的信贷表现并不比我们设定ACL时预期的更糟，但仍然存在不确定性，所以我们保持了覆盖范围。所以总的来说，就我们的期望而言，我们在CRE投资组合中看到的情况并没有真正的变化，这是丢失的内容实际上通过的地方。在其他地方，除了部分批发业务的零星信贷事件外，情况仍然相当温和，但没有真正的趋势。
Erika Najarian:很好。谢谢你们，查理和迈克。
接线员:下一个问题来自德意志银行的马特·奥康纳。先生，您的电话接通了。
马特·奥康纳:早上好。你能详细解释一下为什么要提高财富的存款成本吗?是为了跟上竞争吗?它是在试图避开一些潜在的定价压力吗?或者这里的逻辑是什么?
Mike Santomassimo:是的。嗨，我是迈克，马特。这是针对理财行业的一款扫地产品的。这是存款总额的一部分，与其他产品没有任何关系。所以我将把这个问题留给信托账户或咨询账户中的某一产品。
马特·奥康纳:好的。这些存款余额有多大?
迈克·桑托马西莫:我们没有，我们没有，这不是我们通常会有的东西。但是你可以看到影响是，我强调了影响大约是3.5亿美元对今年下半年的影响。所以我就把它作为这已经嵌入到我们给出的指导中了。
马特·奥康纳:好的。这是一个单独的话题。我的意思是，信用卡的增长非常好。你强调要推出一些新产品。一如既往的问题是，当你——任何人在某一类别中增长如此之多时，你提到不要增长太快，损失率上升可能比一些同行多一点，没有其他一些人多，显然与你的目标一致。你的名片上有一篇华尔街日报的负面文章。所以总的来说，你需要什么样的制衡来确保你的新计划以正确的速度发展?谢谢你！
查理·沙夫:是的。迈克，不如我先开始吧，然后你插嘴?首先，当我们查看信用卡的使用情况时，我们不会从整体上看，对吧?我们看每个单独的产品。我们看了所有年份的表现，我们比较了我们所看到的结果，在平衡建立和信用表现方面，不是损失，而是从早期的帐面拖欠开始，我们看它们是如何与流行病前的结果进行比较的，以及我们在推出产品时所预期的结果。正如我所说，我们关注的是我们承保的消费者的实际质量以及整体信贷质量。我们完全没有损害信贷质量。随着时间的推移，相对于我们之前的位置，我们可能会收紧一些，但当你看到这些年份的实际表现时，它确实与我们预期的完全一致。所以你看到的损失率的增加只是投资组合的到期。我想说的最后一件事是当你想到华尔街日报的文章时，你知道，我们已经推出了很多新的信用卡。与我们发行的所有卡片的规模和范围以及我们的策略相比，这只是非常非常非常小的一部分。
Mike Santomassimo:是的。我只需要加一块。当你看到新客户的增长时，我们的新客户不会少于660人。正如查理提到的，660 FICO的信贷紧缩，抱歉。就像查理说的，信用箱根本就没有出现。当你看一些更大的产品，比如现金返还，比如现金返还卡，活跃现金，这些新产品的信用质量比旧产品高。在这一点上，正如查理所说，我们每个季度都在非常非常细致的层面上进行研究，结果与我们预期的差不多。如果我们开始看到任何弱点，我们会在需要的地方进行调整。
查理·沙夫:这里还有最后一个评论，因为我很欣赏你的问题。无论何时，无论何时，当你看到一个产品有很大的增长，但却有风险时，问问题总是正确的。我们不是这样做的人，无论是在我们的信用卡业务中，还是在我自己经营消费贷款的俱乐部。这不是我们的新产品。我们在过去看到过这种情况。我们看到有人做得很好，也有人做得不好。所以我们非常非常清楚你在我们前进的过程中指出的风险，就像我们对其他投资的业务一样。
马特·奥康纳:好的，这很有帮助。很明显，你说过第三季度卡牌损失会下降，这和你说的都是一致的。谢谢你的颜色。
查理·沙夫:没错。
接线员:下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的贝特西·格拉塞克。您的电话接通了。
贝特西·格拉斯克:嗨。早上好。
查理:嗨，贝琪。
贝特西?格拉塞克:我只是想确认一下，在费用指南上，我明白了一点，那就是，其中很多都与财富管理带来的更好收入有关。因此，我们应该预期，下半年财富管理的收入将至少是一半，甚至可能更高。这样公平吗?
Mike Santomassimo:是的。我是说，贝琪，我在剧本里也写过。所以当你看到这里的咨询资产时，它们的价格是基于，而且大多数都是提前为这个季度定价的。根据我们现在的情况，你知道第三季度会是什么样子。显然，不全是股票市场。还有一些固定收益。但根据目前的市场情况，你应该会在第三季度看到一点增长，然后我们会看到第四季度的情况。
贝特西·格拉斯克:是的，好的。所以我只是想确保我们平衡了费用和转速。所以我知道你不是在引导转速，但解释会让你沿着那条路走下去。那么，我想我刚才提到的另一个问题与之前关于贷款余额的讨论有关，您对今天学习市场业务的兴趣是什么?我意识到还有机会，还有资产上限的限制，但你还没有达到资产上限。所以你还有前进的空间。即使在这个领域，也有比你更受资金限制的玩家。那么，这是一个您有兴趣涉足的领域吗?尤其是在您之前指出的C&I和CRE以及其他类型的贷款目前需求较低的情况下?谢谢。
查理·沙夫:好吧，让我开始。我认为，首先，相对于资产负债表的运行情况，我想说的是，我们对如何运行整体资产负债表非常谨慎，也就是说，我们不希望定期按上限运行因为当你看到客户的贷款和存款需求时，你必须做好准备，就像我们经历了COVID一样，发生了一件事，突然之间出现了很多平局，我们必须在资产缺口内生存。因此，我们认为有缓冲的经营是一件非常明智的事情，尽管你可以说我们放弃了一些短期利润。这就是我们生活的现实。因此，当我们思考市场业务以及这意味着什么时，是的，在完美的世界里，我们允许他们提供更多的融资。有更多的机会让我们能够做到这一点。但我们正在做的是，当我们在公司内部考虑优化资产负债表时，我们在哪里获得最大的回报，哪里有更多的需求，哪里有更少的需求，公司其他部门的需求就会减少，而贸易方面的需求就会增加。所以我们的资产实际上增长了15%左右。
Mike Santomassimo:是的，交易。如果你看一下补充资料，交易资产平均上涨了17%，现货价格上涨了一点。
查理·沙夫:所以我们只是在努力，所以我们在反思这些机会是什么，但我们必须保持产能，因为我提到的原因。
贝琪·格拉塞克:明白了。好吧。谢谢你！
接线员:下一个问题来自加拿大皇家银行资本市场的杰拉德·卡西迪。您的电话接通了。
杰拉德·卡西迪:谢谢。早上好，查理。早上好，迈克。
查理·沙夫:早上好。
杰拉德·卡西迪:查理，你在开场白中提到了《冰血暴》——你们在一年多前推出了《冰血暴》，我猜你们的发展非常顺利。你能和我们分享一下目前正在进行的其他以人工智能为导向的项目吗?随着你们的发展，这些项目可能会提高效率、节省成本，甚至增加收入?
查理:当然。是的。首先，当我们想到人工智能时，我们会把它分成不同的类别，对吧?有传统AI，也有GenAI。我们已经在整个公司内嵌入了大量的传统人工智能用例。这是，这是在我们的市场营销中。这是在信贷决策中。我们向批发银行和消费者银行提供的信息是关于客户可能愿意或可能愿意讨论的内容。因此，在很多方面，这对我们来说都是一切照旧。GenAI存在的新机会是，人工智能可以基于公共数据或我们自己的数据来创造一些东西，这些数据是不存在的。我们最关注的是短期内能够提高效率的东西，但它也有助于为我们的客户提供高质量的体验。呼叫中心就是一个很好的例子。我们接了很多电话，通过人工智能我们有很多机会在有人找到呼叫中心代表之前回答这些问题，但是一旦他们找到呼叫中心代表，我们就会投入很多精力来正确回答这个问题，同时确保我们捕捉到这些信息，了解我们接到的所有这些电话的根本原因。这意味着银行家们必须——电话银行家们必须进去，实际输入电话是关于什么的，他们认为根本原因是什么。然后我们必须将其聚合起来，以此类推。通过GenAI，这可以自动完成。这可以立即完成，我们可以完成工作来确定根本原因，然后我们可以回去，看看它，确保情况是这样的，并做出改变。因此，最终结果是，继续修复缺陷，但这也需要我们付出大量的人工努力。因此，在任何地方，只要有人写东西，有人分析东西，我们就有机会实现自动化。这些东西既存在于批发方面，也存在于消费者方面。就它们对消费者的影响而言，我们将非常缓慢地行动，以确保我们了解其影响。所以这项工作是我们在考虑技术支出的优先次序时很有意义的一部分。
杰拉德·卡西迪:很好。我很欣赏这些见解。然后作为一个快速的跟进。你还提到了本季度顾问保留率的提高。当你审视你的财富和投资管理部门时，我意识到佣金和经纪服务费不是主要驱动力，投资咨询和其他基于资产的费用也在这个部门的收入中。但我注意到，它们今年一直从平到低，一年前是上涨的。是由于第二季度的季节性因素，这条业务线会变得疲软吗?还是在利率更高的环境下，客户只是留下了更多的现金——更多的现金资产，因为他们得到了5%左右的利息?
Mike Santomassimo:是的。杰勒德，对于这一季到下一季的变化，确实没有什么规律可循。很明显，如果有很大的波动性，你可能会看到更多的交易活动。第二季度的股市肯定不是这种情况。但在某种程度上，在很长一段时间内，这一行项目可能下降得更多，咨询上升得更多。从生产力和持续收入的角度来看，这实际上是一件好事。
杰拉德·卡西迪:是的。好,超级。好的，谢谢。谢谢你，迈克。
主持人:今天最后一个问题来自沃尔夫研究公司的史蒂文·楚巴克。先生，您的电话接通了。
Steven Chubak:谢谢，早上好，Charlie。早上好，迈克。考虑到我们收到的大量投资者关于财富的存款定价变化的问题，我希望你能提供一些额外的背景，因为你的许多同行都谈到了现金分类压力的减轻，或者至少是在很晚的时候。想要更好地了解是什么决定调整你们的价格?它是否影响了顾问的招聘或保留?这是否妨碍了你保持更多的收入份额?或者，这是一种攻势，可能会在定价和存款方面引领市场，并迫使其他公司效仿?
Mike Santomassimo:是的，Steve。这是迈克。我想说几件事。第一，这不是对现金分类的反应。我们看到理财业务的现金分类缓慢，就像我们在消费业务中看到的那样。所以这不是对那个的反应。在财富业务中，这只占总存款的一小部分，而且这是专门针对这个产品的，它是一个顾问账户，存在摩擦现金。所以这并不是对我们所看到的竞争力量的反应，也不是我们试图在某个地方积极主动地推动增长。
Steven Chubak:明白了。还有一个关于费用的后续讨论。考虑到你在CIB和Wealth中看到的费用增长势头，你显然在这两个领域都进行了投资，同时，增量利润率实际上相当高，尤其是CIB，今年上半年的利润率比去年高出75%。我希望得到一些观点，因为我们认为一些收费势头是持续的，你认为什么是可持续的或持久的增长利润率在CIB和财富认识到支付概况是不同的?
迈克·桑托马西莫:好吧，让我从财富方面开始，然后再回到I-banking或银行业方面。所以在财富方面，随着时间的推移，真正能帮助我们推动利润增长的是两件事。一个是咨询资产方面的持续生产力和增长，这是你可以看到的，第二个是我们在其他论坛上讨论过的。它在通过银行和贷款产品渗透客户群方面做得更好。当你看看我们在财富业务中的贷款，看看我们的整体资产基础或顾问时，你会发现我们的渗透程度远低于一些同行。因此，我认为这些因素确实有助于推动我们获得更多的同类最佳利润率，这比我们今天的水平要高。这在贷款方面需要一些时间。在这种利率环境下，推动这种增长有点困难。随着利率开始下降，你可能会看到更多的需求。所以有一些周期性的方面从时间的角度来看。但这些都是Barry Sommers和整个财富管理团队非常关注的事情，确保我们拥有合适的能力，合适的销售队伍，以及对销售队伍的正确支持等等。在电子银行业务方面，我们在这方面的投资已经有两年多的时间了，可能比两年多一点。在我们增加优秀人才的同时，我们也没有必要——我们也要确保我们把合适的人安排在合适的位置上。所以你并没有看到高级员工总数的大幅增长，实际上，我们要确保在合适的职位上有合适的人，所以你看到了一些减少，也看到了一些增长。这也有助于缓和整体投资。然后，当我们引进这些人的时候，当你招募新员工的时候，你会支付他们全部的费用，对吧?所以你现在看到的是，你通过增加收入获得了这些投资的收益，但在某种程度上，你已经在运行率中得到了费用。所以我认为，随着时间的推移，你会看到利润率增长的速度有所放缓，但你所看到的是你应该预料到的，就像我们进行了投资，你支付了员工的工资，现在他们每个季度的生产率都在提高，这是很好的。
史蒂文·丘巴克:迈克，这个颜色很有用。谢谢你回答我的问题。
Mike Santomassimo:是的。
查理·沙夫:好了，各位。非常感谢。我们稍后再聊。
接线员:谢谢大家参加今天的电话会议。此时，各方可以断开连接。
本文是在人工智能的支持下生成的，并由编辑审阅。欲了解更多信息，请参阅我们的T&C。
0
