?。
黑石集团(Blackstone，股票代码:BX)公布了2023年第四季度强劲的财务业绩，这是该公司六个季度以来最高的可分配收益。这家另类资产管理公司的GAAP净收入为1.09亿美元，可分配收益为14亿美元，合每股1.11美元。公司已宣布派发每股0.94美元的股息，截至2月5日，股息将支付给登记在册的股东。该公司管理的资产规模超过1万亿美元，并被纳入标准普尔500指数，这是一个重要的里程碑。黑石的房地产业务有650亿美元的现金储备，有望实现增长，而且该公司在私人财富、信贷和保险等各个业务渠道的前景都很乐观。
黑石的可分配收益达到6个季度以来的最高水平，达到14亿美元。
GAAP净利润为1.09亿美元。
截至2月5日，将向登记在册的股东支付每股0.94美元的股息。
该公司管理的资产超过1万亿美元。
黑石的房地产股票策略表现优于公共房地产投资信托基金，企业私募股权基金在过去两年中升值了12%。
该公司拥有650亿美元的房地产投资资金，并宣布了三笔重要的房地产交易。
黑石集团预计，其减持基金业务、永续资本平台和保险渠道将出现增长。
黑石预计会有一个支持性的商业环境政府资金成本降低，市场信心增强。
房地产价值有望企稳，提供投资机会。
公司是乐观的关于其私人财富渠道和整体投资活动的增长。
在第四季度，黑石基金的价值下降了4%至4.5%，主要是由于利率对冲的未实现价值减少。
房地产利差预计需要一段时间才能恢复到正常水平。
自成立以来，黑石的基础设施投资工具每年实现15%的净回报率。
保险资产管理规模同比增长20%，达到1920亿美元。
公司是有地位的随着市场的发展，需要加速变现nditions改善。
该公司没有提供对房地产和信贷行业估值的具体预测。
管理层讨论了美联储的活动对交易活动的积极影响。
该公司强调了其在直接贷款方面的竞争优势，包括开出大额支票和向借款人提供确定性的能力。
百仕通仍持乐观态度。尽管竞争加剧，估值预测也面临挑战，但其平台的表现仍令人担忧。
黑石第四季度的强劲表现证明了该公司的战略定位和多元化投资组合。凭借强大的交易渠道和大量的干货，该公司已做好充分准备，以利用市场机会。该公司对其业务模式和增长前景，特别是在保险和实物财富渠道方面的信心，标志着未来的积极发展轨迹。尽管存在一些挑战，例如基金价值下降和房地产利差复苏缓慢，但在交易活动可能增加和商业房地产贷款有利环境的支持下，黑石的前景仍然乐观。
黑石集团(Blackstone)最新的财务业绩反映出，这家公司正以一种战略性的方式应对市场的复杂性。InvestingPro的几个关键指标和见解强调了该公司的业绩，这些指标和见解为报告结果提供了更广泛的背景。
InvestingPro数据显示，黑石的市值为1457.9亿美元，显示出其在该行业的重要地位。该公司的市盈率高达67.2，截至2023年第四季度，过去12个月的调整后市盈率为63.32。如此高的市盈率可能表明投资者对该公司未来增长的信心或该公司市场地位的溢价。此外，百仕通在过去三个月表现出强劲的回报，总回报率为34.96%，反映出积极的市场情绪。
InvestingPro的一个提示强调，黑石今年的净利润预计将增长，这与该公司的积极前景和最近的财务业绩相一致。然而，值得注意的是，有4位分析师下调了未来一段时间的收益预期，这可能意味着潜在的不利因素或对未来业绩的更为保守的展望。
对于那些对更深入的分析和更多的InvestingPro技巧感兴趣的人，这里有更多的见解。InvestingPro的订户可以获得丰富的信息，包括黑石股息一致性的提示，该公司连续17年保持支付，以及过去12个月的盈利能力。
为了利用新年特惠，读者可以以高达50%的折扣订阅InvestingPro。使用优惠券代码“SFY24”可获得2年InvestingPro+订阅额外10%的折扣，或使用优惠券代码“SFY241”可获得1年InvestingPro+订阅额外10%的折扣。该服务提供了一个获得全面财务数据和专家分析的机会，可以为投资决策提供信息。
接线员:您好，欢迎来到黑石集团2023年第四季度和全年投资者电话会议。今天的会议正在录音。此时，所有参与者都处于仅听模式。【操作说明】。现在，我想把会议交给韦斯顿·塔克，股东关系主管。请继续。
韦斯顿·塔克:太好了。谢谢你！早上好。欢迎参加黑石第四季度电话会议。今天出席会议的有:董事长兼首席执行官史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼;Jon Gray，总裁兼首席运营官;Michael Chae，首席财务官。今天上午早些时候，我们发布了一份新闻稿和幻灯片演示，可以在我们的网站上找到。我们预计下个月晚些时候提交10-K报告。我想提醒大家，今天的电话会议可能包含前瞻性陈述，这些陈述具有不确定性，可能与实际结果存在重大差异。我们不承担更新这些陈述的任何义务。有关可能影响结果的一些因素的讨论，请参阅我们10-K的风险因素部分。我们还将参考非公认会计准则指标，您可以在我们网站股东页面的新闻稿中找到对账。另请注意，本次电话会议不构成要约出售或征求要约购买任何黑石基金的权益。本音频广播是黑石公司受版权保护的材料，未经同意不得复制。很快，我们公布了本季度的GAAP净利润为1.09亿美元。可分配收益为14亿美元，即每股1.11美元，我们宣布股息为0.94美元，将于2月5日支付给持股人。说到这里，我把电话交给史蒂夫。
Stephen Schwarzman: Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Blackstone reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2023, including our highest distributable earnings in six quarters, which capped a volatile year for global markets. Most major equity indices rebounded from significant declines in 2022, but with wide intra-year swings, driven by historic movements in Treasury yields, economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability. Against this backdrop, Blackstone generated steady fee-related earnings of $4.3 billion for the year, underpinning healthy distributable earnings of $5.1 billion. Performance revenues were down as expected in the context of limited realizations as we choose to sell less in unfavorable markets. We've designed the firm to provide resiliency in times of stress and capture the upside as markets recover. In the fourth quarter, as bond yields declined and markets rallied, we executed several realizations, driving strong sequential growth in DE to $1.4 billion. 2023 was also a year of important milestones for Blackstone. We were the first alternative manager to surpass $1 trillion of assets under management. We were also the first in our sector to be added to the S&P 500 index, positioning our stock be even more widely owned. We were pleased that BX shares ranked in the top 20 best performing out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 index last year. Blackstone is now the 55th largest US public company by market cap, exceeding the market value of all other asset managers. In December, we released our sixth annual holiday video, which has received over 8 million views, which may not say something about our limited acting skills, but it certainly says something about the Blackstone brand. Our funds appreciated overall in 2023, highlighted by strength in credit, infrastructure, corporate private equity and life sciences, even as we weathered the difficult environment for real estate. Stepping back, over the last two years, the campaign by central banks to control inflation has resulted in muted returns for most traditional asset classes. The S&P 500 returned only 3% over two years, while the median US stock actually declined 9% and the REIT index was down 14%. Their traditional 60/40 portfolio lost value, down 3%. In contrast, Blackstone's flagship strategies generated positive appreciation over this period and meaningfully outperformed the relevant public indices. For example, our corporate private equity funds appreciated 12% over the past two years compared to the S&P up 3%, outperformance of 9%. Our real estate equity strategies appreciated 1% to 6% compared to negative 14% for public REITs. That's a dramatic outperformance. In credit, our private credit strategies appreciated 25% growth while the high yield index was up only 2%. BAAM generated a 13% gross return to the BPS composite over the past two years, a remarkable achievement in liquid markets and well ahead of the hedge fund index, which actually was down 1%, and that's an outperformance of 12%. And finally, our infrastructure business appreciated 33% over the past two years compared to only a 7% return for the S&P infrastructure index. That's an outperformance of 26%. This outstanding performance is one of the reasons we've been able to build this platform from zero six years ago to over $40 billion today. Overall, the ability to outperform market indices over long periods of time is why the alternatives asset class and Blackstone, in particular, continue to have significant momentum. Our limited partners have benefited from the exceptional balance of the firm and the careful way we've positioned their capital in a volatile world. One of the key advantages that comes from our leading scale is having more, better and richer private data, which informs how we invest. And Jon referred to this on television today. Our portfolio consists of over 230 companies, more than 12,000 real estate assets and one of the largest credit businesses in the world. We marshal real time data across these holdings to develop macro insights that we then share across all of our businesses, allowing the firm to adapt quickly to changing conditions. We believe our access to information exceeds that of our competitors, and it positions the firm's very well as we move towards a world driven by artificial intelligence, an area on which we are already very focused. This process of aggregating data and information helps us identify trends early and often, leads us to differentiated views on what's happening around the world. In early 2021, for example, it led us to the conclusion that inflation would be higher and more pervasive than the consensus expectation, and we positioned the firm accordingly. We then started speaking publicly that inflation was moderating as early as October 2022 and with increasing frequency in 2023. Data from our portfolio companies showed that input cost inflation was rapidly declining. We persisted in this view, even when the 10 year Treasury yield spiked to a 16-year high of 5% in October. As we all know, the 10 year subsequently declined over 100 basis points into year-end, the opposite of what many market participants believed would happen. Our access to information is an enduring competitive advantage here at Blackstone. And this advantage grows as we grow larger. As we move into 2024, we know that the rise in investor confidence around the shift from a restrictive monetary policy to one that is more accommodating. We now believe CPI is running below the Fed's 2% target after adjusting the reported numbers for shelter costs, which lag what we've observed on the ground as one of the largest investors in this area. At the same time, US economy has remained quite strong. Unemployment is nearly unchanged since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle. Most consumer segments are healthy, corporate balance sheets are strong, and credit fundamental has remained solid. In our own portfolio, our companies are showing strong top line performance overall as well as earnings growth as cost pressures have eased. We see a resilient economy, albeit one that is decelerating. What we're seeing is consistent with a soft landing. Overall, with the cost of capital moving lower, market confidence returning, we believe we're entering a supportive environment for our business. While changing market conditions take time to fully translate to our financial results, the fourth quarter reflected an acceleration in key forward indicators, including both fundraising and deployment We're planting seeds and expanding invested capital in the ground. And with nearly $200 billion of dry powder, our purchasing power for investments exceeds almost any other company in the world. I believe that we will look back at 2023 as the cyclical bottom for our firm. Looking forward, Blackstone is exceptionally well positioned to navigate the road ahead. Our investors can count on the dedication of our people and the enduring nature of our culture, characterized by excellence, achievement, teamwork, hard work, and the highest standards of ethics and integrity. Our employees embody these values, and they approach their work every day with a passion for what they do and an unwavering commitment to serving our clients. We created an environment in the firm that is defined by meritocracy and equality of opportunity. We do not discriminate against anyone based on race, ethnic background, religious beliefs, gender, or sexual orientation. We are proud of these values. Our people want to create and build their careers at Blackstone, and there was a huge demand to work at the firm. We had 62,000 unique applicants or 169 physicians in the latest analyst class, reflecting an acceptance rate of 0.271%, a dramatic change from when we started the firm 38 years ago, when, frankly, hardly anyone wanted to join us. This provides the foundation for the next generation of remarkable talent and will drive our growth for the foreseeable future. Blackstone is an extraordinary place and our prospects are very strong. I'm highly enthusiastic about what we will accomplish for our shareholders in 2024. And with that, I'll throw the ball over to Jon.
Jonathan Gray: I'm happy to catch it. Thank you, Steve. And good morning, everyone. I'm proud of how we've navigated the challenging markets of the past few years by focusing on the right sectors. We believe we're now heading into a better environment, as Steve noted, with inflation and cost of capital headwinds moderating. This backdrop is leading to the emergence of three powerful dynamics across our business. First, we believe that real estate values are bottoming. Second, our momentum in the private wealth channel is building. And third, investment activity has picked up meaningfully across the firm, which is a key element of creating future value. I'll discuss each of these dynamics in more detail. First, as I said, we believe values in commercial real estate are bottoming. This doesn't mean there won't be more troubled real estate investments to come in the market, particularly in the office sector, which were set up during a period when borrowing costs were much lower. Nor does it mean we won't see a slowing in fundamentals in certain sectors with excess near term supply. What it does mean is that the cost of capital appears to have peaked as borrowing spreads have begun to tighten and the Fed is no longer raising rates, but likely cutting them in 2024. Also, importantly, new construction starts have started to move down sharply in commercial real estate, which is quite positive for long term values. While it will take time, we can see the pillars of a real estate recovery coming into place. We are, of course, not waiting for the all-clear sign and believe the best investments are made during times of uncertainty. We announced three major real estate transactions in the past few months, the $3.5 billion take-private of Tricon Residential, a partnership with Digital Realty (NYSE:) to develop $7 billion of data centers, and a joint venture with the FDIC to acquire a 20% stake in a $17 billion first mortgage portfolio from the former Signature Bank (OTC:). We think this is just the start as Blackstone Real Estate has $65 billion of dry powder to invest into this dislocated market. Meanwhile, in our existing portfolio, we've absorbed the increase in interest rates and cash flows are growing more stable in most areas. We continue to see robust fundamentals in logistics, student housing and data centers, which together comprise the majority of our real estate equity portfolio. That said, in Q4, the value of our funds declined by 4% to 4.5%, primarily relating to two factors. First, the single largest driver was the decline in the unrealized value of our interest rate hedges as Treasury yields fell. We put these structures in place to fix our financing costs ahead of the rise in interest rates and they have generated significant value. Second, in our life sciences office and US multifamily holdings, near term performance has decelerated as new supply works its way through the system, the residual effect of construction undertaken in a low rate environment. The good news is that new supply in these sectors, and for virtually all other types of real estate, is declining materially, as I mentioned. We believe that with our exceptional portfolio positioning and large scale dry powder, our real estate business will emerge from this cycle even stronger than before. Outside of real estate, our other businesses are demonstrating resiliency and fundamental strength. Our credit and insurance teams had a remarkable year in 2023, with gross returns of 16.4% in the private credit strategies and 13% in liquid credit. These are extraordinary results for a performing credit business. The default rate across our nearly 2000 non-investment grade credit is only 30 basis points over the last 12 months. And in our investment grade focused business, we placed or originated $30 billion of A quality credit on average in 2023 for our major insurance clients, which generated 190 basis points of excess spread compared to comparably rated liquid credits. In corporate private equity, our operating companies overall reported healthy revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 7% year-over-year, along with margin strength. On the inflation front, wage growth continued to moderate. And for the first time in two-and-a-half years, a majority of our surveyed companies are not finding it challenging to hire workers. And finally, for BAAM, since the start of 2021, when we brought in Joe Dowling to lead the business, the BPS composite has been up every quarter, outperforming the 60/40 portfolio by approximately 1,200 basis points. Moving to the second key dynamic emerging in our business, our momentum in private wealth. Blackstone has been serving this channel with a dedicated organization for 13 years, and we are the clear market leader with nearly $240 billion of AUM. We built enormous trust with our investors by delivering outstanding long term performance, including 11% net returns annually from BREIT's largest share class and 10% for BCRED. We raised nearly $5 billion in the channel in Q4, including $3.6 billion for our perpetual vehicles. Subscriptions for perpetuals accelerated to $2.7 billion on January 2, reflecting the best month of fundraising from individual investors since June 2022. BCRED had its best month since May 2022, raising $1.1 billion in January, and our new private equity vehicle, BXPE, raised $1.3 billion in January, which we believe is the largest ever first close of its kind. BXPE will leverage the firm's full breadth of investment capabilities in private equity, including buyout, secondaries, tactical opportunities, life sciences growth and other opportunistic strategies. At the same time, BREIT has weathered the storm in real estate markets and December repurchase requests were down over 50% from Q3 and down 80% from last January's peak. If current trends continue, we expect to be out of proration this quarter. BREIT's semi liquid structure has worked as designed since launching the vehicle seven years ago by providing liquidity, while protecting performance. In six of those years, redeeming investors were fulfilled immediately. Over the past year, it took a little over four months on average to be substantially redeemed. We believe investors' experience of receiving double the public REIT market over the past seven years with this semi liquid structure is proof of concept. We continue to be optimistic about our prospects in the vast and underpenetrated private wealth channel, given our performance, the investment we've made in distribution and our highly differentiated brand. In addition to private wealth, we also have very strong momentum in the insurance channel. Our AUM grew 20% year-over-year to $192 billion, and we have clear line of sight to $250 billion over the next several years with existing clients alone. We expect to benefit from multiple engines of growth, as these clients execute pension risk transfers, additional annuity sales, new insurance block deals, and separate accounts for sector specific lending. Turning to the third key dynamic, the firm's investment activity is accelerating. Following a choppy year, we deployed $31 billion in the fourth quarter, up 2.5 times from Q3, and committed $15 billion to pending transactions. We continue to emphasize key thematic areas, including digital infrastructure, enterprise software and energy transition. In private equity, we're privatizing two leading digital marketplaces, including Adevinta in Europe and Rover, my family's favorite in the pet space. We also committed to acquire an energy services software firm in the US and an online payments business in Japan. In credit, borrower demand is multiples of supply today, and deployment in our credit, insurance and real estate credit businesses more than tripled in Q4 compared to the third quarter to $21 billion. And we've also been providing creatively structured capital solutions in TacOps. secondaries and BAAM. As Steve highlighted, we're planting seeds for future realizations at a favorable moment. In closing, we're optimistic on the path ahead with multiple powerful dynamics unfolding in our business. The recovery will not be a straight line. But as always, our brand and track record will continue to drive us forward. And our shareholders stand to benefit from the firm's substantial embedded earnings power over time. And with that, I will turn things over to Michael Chae.
Michael Chae: Thanks, Jon. And good morning, everyone. The firm delivered resilient performance in 2023. And as we move forward, beyond what we believe was a cyclical trough for key business lines, we are well positioned. I'll first review financial results and then we'll discuss the key elements of the forward outlook. Starting with results. Total AUM increased 7% year-over-year to new record levels, led by robust strength in credit and insurance. Total inflows reached nearly $150 billion for the full year, the third best in our history, despite the challenging fundraising environment, highlighting the firm's expansive breadth of strategies. Fee earning AUM increased 6% year-over-year, while base management fees rose 7% to a record $6.5 billion. Q4 represented the 56th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in base management fees at the firm. Fee-related earnings for $4.3 billion for the year or $3.58 per share, stable with the prior year, underpinned by the growth in management fees along with continued margin expansion, notwithstanding a decline in fee-related performance revenues. FRE margin expanded to 75 basis points to 57.8% for the full year, the highest level ever. Fee-related performance revenues were $859 million for the year, with the lower contribution of real estate, partly offset by a 51% year-over-year increase in these revenues from our direct lending business as it continues to grow and scale and impact to the firm's financials. Distributable earnings were $5.1 billion in 2023 or $3.95 per common share. While FRE was a ballast to earnings throughout the year, the shape of the year was driven by our sales activity. Net realizations were muted in the first three quarters as we remained highly selective amid the volatile backdrop for broader markets and asset values. In the fourth quarter, we took advantage of more favorable conditions to execute the sales of public stock across multiple holdings, along with a number of other realizations. In addition, BAAM crystallized its incentive fees for most of its open ended strategies annually in Q4, and the segment's performance revenues increased 43% year-over-year, commensurate with its strong overall 2023 investment performance. In total, net realizations for the firm were $425 million in the fourth quarter, up 16% year-over-year and up 64% sequentially from Q3. The growth in net realizations lifted total distributable earnings to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, the highest level in six quarters, as Steve highlighted, or $1.11 per common share. Moving to the outlook, the firm is moving forward with a strong underlying momentum across multiple drivers of growth. First, in our drawdown fund business, we've raised over 80% of our $150 billion target for the most recent vintage or flagships, but less than half was earning management fees as of year-end. We expect this to increase to the substantial majority earning management fees by the latter part of 2024. We recently launched the investment period for our European real estate vehicle. And over the coming quarters, we expect to activate our flagships in corporate private equity, PE energy transition, growth equity, infrastructure secondaries, and by early next year, GP stakes in life sciences. These funds will earn fees following the respective fee holidays. We expect to activate our corporate private equity flagship in the near term, which has raised $18 billion to date toward a target of at least $20 billion, followed by a four-month fee holiday. At the same time, we're moving toward the next vintage of fundraising for multiple strategies, including the near term launch of fundraising for our fifth private credit opportunistic strategy targeting $10 billion. Second, our perpetual capital platform has continued to expand, today comprising 44% of the firm's fee earnings AUM. Key drivers of recent growth include BCRED and our infrastructure platform, which grew fee earning AUM by 26% and 21% in 2023, respectively. The commingled BIP infrastructure vehicle has achieved 15% net returns annually since inception, and its next scheduled crystallization of fee related performance revenues will occur in the fourth quarter of this year, with respect to three years of gains. Third, in the insurance channel, AUM has reached $192 billion, up 20% year-over-year, as Jon noted, driven principally by our four major clients, and we anticipate substantial inflows from them going forward, underpinning strong growth in fee revenues and FRE in this channel. Finally, with respect to realizations, we are positioned for an eventual acceleration in realizations in the context of more supportive markets, although it will take time to build the pipeline. Performance revenue eligible AUM in the ground is $505 billion, up 12% over the past two years despite volatile markets and up over 70% in three years. We hold a large scale high quality portfolio, which is well diversified across asset classes, regions and vintages, and net accrued performance revenue on the balance sheet stands at $5.8 billion. The firm's embedded performance-related earnings power is significant. As always, our long term capital affords us the patience to optimize our exits over time as markets heal in order to maximize value for our investors. In closing, history has shown that Blackstone has always emerged from cycles even stronger. Our business has been built on this throughout nearly four decades. We are now in the process of emerging from a significant cycle. And we are confident that history will repeat itself again because of the power of our brand, our platform, our people and our culture. With that, we thank you for joining the call and would like to open it up now for questions.
接线员:[接线员说明]。我们首先请到美国银行的克雷格·西根塔勒。
Craig Siegenthaler:我的问题是关于投资的。史蒂夫，我想我是上周在达沃斯第一次听到你的乐观评论的。但乔恩今天在准备好的评论中确实支持CMBS市场重新开放，资金成本下降，息差收紧。因此，这次的背景似乎比你上次在10月份主持我们的电话会议时好多了。而且，你的新任务部署也很顺利。那么，与去年的740亿美元相比，你对2024年部署的总体预期是什么?听起来像是替身。
Stephen Schwarzman: Craig，我喜欢这个问题。我想说，考虑到这个行业的性质，很难给出具体数字。我们能说的是，很多好事正在发生。对吧?我们已经让美联储从紧缩转向了降息。债券市场利差开始收窄。股市已经反弹。我认为IPO市场将会回升。此外，并购交易的数量也在增加。有很多公司都想卖东西，尤其是私募股权公司。有些房地产行业的人已经在这里呆了好几年了。因此，很难给出具体数字，但我们预计交易活动将会回升。当然，有时候做这些事情需要时间。所以你看到的一些私募股权交易，我们已经研究了一段时间了，但就交易活动而言，这里的发展路径是向上和向右的。我认为，给出一个确切的数字很难。
接线员:下一个问题是克里斯平·洛夫和派珀·桑德勒。
克里斯平·洛夫:你能告诉我们你对现在的公寓市场的看法吗?你上周在这里做了一笔大买卖。我很想知道你对这笔交易的看法，以及随着我们进入2024年，你对公寓的看法，以及你在房地产领域最活跃的其他行业的排名，以及你是否能看到该领域的其他活动。
苏世民:这里有几件事。我们上周宣布的一笔交易包含了公寓部分，但那主要是加拿大公寓。公司绝大多数集中于单户出租。由于单户住宅的短缺，这种空间变得更加强大。在多户住宅领域，正如我们在这里所指出的，我们看到的是在低利率时期新供应的激增，当时价值已经上升了很多。这可能需要12个月，甚至更长的时间来解决。现在，租金已经下降到一个相当平稳的水平。在某些情况下，是适度负面的。正如我所说，这需要一些时间。好消息是，多户住宅建设现在下降了约三分之一。所以，一旦你解决了这个问题，我们就会处在一个更好的地方。整体的背景是美国的住房短缺。所以，单身家庭，短期内更强大。多户家庭，肯定有点弱。但就我们的投资活动而言，在整体建设性的住房环境中，你可能会看到我们投资于疲软和多户住宅，因为我们有一个长期的建设性观点，即使近期存在一些不利因素。
接线员:我们找摩根士丹利的迈克尔·赛普里斯。
Michael塞浦路斯:我想问一下你从BXMT、BREDS和机构sma那里获得的商业房地产贷款平台。我希望你能谈谈你是如何扩大平台和能力的，以及考虑到某些终端市场压力以及美国银行和其他现有CRE投资者面临的某些限制，你认为机会有多大?
苏世民:嗯，我们绝对认为现在是商业抵押房地产贷款机构的好时机，因为市场人气很差。正如你所说，迈克尔，资本已经撤出了。银行正试图减少风险敞口。我认为，我们今天在这个领域的业务规模略高于700亿美元。我们拥有的资本的好处是它确实涵盖了所有领域。我们有我们的BREDS基金，它本质上是高收益的。我们正在种第五个年份的酒。我们在黑石抵押(纽约证券交易所:)信托公司做抵押贷款的过渡。然后我们的保险客户想要做更稳定的房地产。对于保险客户和其他客户，我们在CMBS市场上围绕流动性证券和房地产债务所做的工作。我们认为这是一个真正落后的领域。如果你看一下利差，以历史标准来看，它们相当大。贷款价值比已经下降。这是经济衰退后的自然现象。因此，我认为这是一个可以继续以相当不错的速度增长的领域，因为我认为相对于风险，你可以获得非常有吸引力的回报。就像，在股权方面，这是我们进入今年后要关注的领域。
克里斯平·洛夫:我们接下来请富国证券公司的菲尼安·奥谢。
Finian O’shea: Michael，谢谢你对旗舰店和管理费的看法。你能不能谈谈，在你经历旗舰假期期间，是否会有更多的逆风到来，或者从现在开始，是否应该更顺利，当然，考虑到今年的稳定部署，改进部署?
Michael Chae:正如我们所概述的，今年，与去年相反，我认为在今年下半年，更多的是缺乏重要的旗舰照明，欧洲是一个例外。但我们预计全年将有一系列活动。我提到过属于这一类的多种基金。正如你提到的，几乎所有的学校都有三到四个月的学费假期。因此，我们将在未来几个季度看到这种情况的发展。你会看到，在其他条件相同的情况下，由于学费减免，这方面存在一些边际压力。但我认为，当我们考虑整体增长率及其影响时，我们会看到管理费的上升趋势，尽管今年晚些时候会比早些时候加快。
接线员:我们请高盛的亚历克斯·布洛斯坦接电话。
Alex Blostein:另一个是关于房地产的，也许是关于核心房地产的分区。很明显，低利率确实有助于重新点燃投资者对这部分市场的需求。但你如何看待机构和散户对核心房地产的兴趣，无论是BPP还是英国退欧?从投资者配置的角度来看，我们需要什么样的利率水平才能让这些产品变得有吸引力?
斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼:亚历克斯，我不知道这是否一定是一个特定的水平。我认为这与动力有关。正如你所知，在投资者遭受损失之后，即使是轻微的损失，他们也会变得谨慎起来。由于滞后，当挑战成为现实时，房地产将在今年出现许多负面新闻。因此，我认为投资者倾向于花时间重新回到这个领域。这就是90年代初发生的事情。这就是2008年和2009年发生的事情。因此，需要谨慎。所以，你不会看到大量资金突然涌入。随着经济复苏，首先你会看到这种触底效应，然后你开始看到价值的增长，然后共识开始改变。我认为，在这段时间里，你往往会得到最好的投资机会，因为你可以看到隧道尽头的光明，但资本还没有进入这个领域。然后，随着时间的推移，随着结果变得更好，新供应有限，利率回落，然后人们开始重返市场，因为他们觉得这样做是安全的。所以，我认为简短的回答是，机构投资者和个人投资者都需要一点时间，但这与业绩有关。它需要几个季度的强劲表现，人们会说，嘿，我很乐意这样做。与此同时，我们应该设法利用市场信心的缺乏。
接线员:我们请德意志银行的布莱恩·比德尔接电话。
布莱恩·比德尔:有一个问题要问迈克尔，也许还有乔恩。迈克尔，在谈到基金激活的速度时，我只是想了解一下您对费用相关收入增长的信心，不包括与费用相关的绩效费用作为基本收入，比如说，在2024年以两位数的速度增长?听起来，按照2025年的日历，这一速度实际上会根据全年的激活时间而加快。然后，请您谈谈您对2024年自由贸易保证金的看法。排除与费用相关的绩效费用的影响，我知道这可能会产生噪音，但可能只是扩大业务规模的能力，以便在2024年实现FRE利润率的扩张。
Michael Chae:这个问题分为两部分。关于第一个问题，关于2024年和2025年的管理费增长轨迹，简而言之，我们对此感觉良好。我们没有一个水晶球来预测季度到季度的情况。但是，在结构上，我们有一个嵌入式坡道。正如我所提到的，它将在全年加速，考虑到一系列基金将会减少，我们看到下半年和2025年的良好势头，正如你所指出的。我们专注于提取资金。这是一个重要的业务引擎。显然，在其他关键的积极因素中，保险是我们有很多可见性和明确的，因为我们几年前真正开始扩大规模，在许多情况下，我们的四大合作伙伴和其他保险客户的合同资金流入，我们正在追求整个行业，我认为，在信用保险领域非常乐观。所以，我认为，有多个引擎，不仅仅是新的收缩在那里燃烧，尽管，我再次认为，它将在今年的过程中加速到2025年。在利润率。显然，我们正处在一个更具挑战性的宏观环境中。我们对2023年的利润率执行情况感到满意。关于前景，我想说的是，现在还在年初。和往常一样，我们鼓励大家以全年为基础，而不是以季度为单位来衡量。但话虽如此，在今年年初，我将再次强调，利润率稳定是一个总体指导方针。
接线员:我们请瑞银集团的布伦南·霍肯接电话。
布伦南·霍肯:你在保证金稳定性的问题上稍微提到了一点。但有一件事我很好奇。因此，2023年全年的FRE收入下降了近3%，但比较比率上升了200多个基点。那么，在收入下降的情况下，如何可能产生正的竞争比率杠杆呢?这是否只是表明，当收入增长时，自由市场的利润率可能会压缩?或者我们应该考虑我们的FRE边际稳定，也许能帮助我理解这些机制?
Michael Chae: Brennan，我想在现实世界中思考一下，我们共同管理成本结构的能力，我们对此感觉很好。我认为，我们已经证明，公司的结构是稳健的，潜在的长期利润头寸，我们模型中内置的那种运营杠杆。与此同时，我们相信我们采取了严格的成本管理方法，并对我们的成本结构有相当程度的控制。当然，作为其中的一部分，我们会考虑每项业务在某一年的财务表现和管理层薪酬。我想你们也看到了我们的非公司运营成本，运营费用，你们也看到了2023年的增长率比前几年明显下降。这就是我们的思考方式。我们不是环境的索取者。我们积极管理我们的业务。
接线员:我们将在摩根大通的肯沃辛顿旁边。
肯·沃辛顿:我想深入研究房地产套利的前景。它在2023年明显处于低迷状态。乔纳森，你提到了房地产估值触底。你认为房地产套利需要多长时间才能回到更正常的水平?你认为这可能会在2024年晚些时候反弹吗?这是2025年的事件吗?或者你认为2026年或2027年可能需要更长时间?然后，当房地产套利确实反弹到这种正常水平时，宏观经济形势会是什么样子?
乔纳森·格雷:我们很难预测未来的发展方向。但是，很明显，当你经历一个像这样的循环，就像我们说过的，它需要一些时间。甚至在房地产的销售过程中，你没有很多流动的公共证券，你从货架上拿下来卖掉，这也需要时间。所以，是的，我不认为今年上半年房地产的变现会大幅飙升。我们希望随着时间的推移，情况会好转。你有可能与一些上市公司进行更大规模的交易，以完成一些事情。当然，当你进入今年下半年和2025年的时候，我们的信心会更好。我想我要说的是，今年是房地产实现的过渡年。我通常会保持较低的期望值。随着时间的推移，我会感觉好多了。宏观环境是低利率环境，我们回到适度增长，或者我们在适度增长，我们有有限的新供应。人们又开始投资这类资产，因为它带来了有利的结果。所以我认为在房地产变现方面，你需要一点耐心。我说，当然，然后会发生一些事情，但这是我们的基本情况假设。好消息是，我们对在哪里部署资金感到非常满意。我们在一些最好的行业中拥有巨大的风险敞口，我们的大部分房地产投资组合都是在物流、学生住房和数据中心方面，即使在这种环境下，我们也看到了所有行业的个位数增长率。因此，当环境好转时，我们认为我们将拥有市场所需的各种产品。当我们认为价值合适的时候，我们就会这么做。我们想让客户的回报最大化，因为正如你所知，业绩是最重要的。我们认为，随着我们走出这个周期，就像我们走出上一次房地产周期一样，我们将变得更加强大。其他竞争对手，我们不相信会有同样的回报，并将帮助我们进一步扩大我们的市场份额。所以我们想用正确的方式来做这件事。这可能需要一些时间，但我们对最终结果非常有信心。
接线员:我们接下来请自动研究公司的帕特里克·戴维特发言。
帕特里克?戴维特:尽管市场和信心有所复苏，但仍有很多观察人士，包括你的一些竞争对手的高管，似乎对今年将是私募股权变现好得多的一年持谨慎态度。一些人甚至说，PE标志仍然需要负复位。你在事先准备好的发言中暗示了这一点，但你能详细说明你对这场辩论的立场吗?对于为什么你们的同行在私募股权前景方面存在如此巨大的差异，您有什么更广泛的想法吗?
Stephen Schwarzman:嗯，我想我会从事实开始。去年，我们的私募股权变现额实际上是同比增长的，并从该领域产生了强劲的变现，我认为这说明了我们的投资组合的定位及其标记。所以我认为我们的乐观来自于我们所处的位置，在数字迁移方面的一些领域，在能源转型、生命科学方面正在发生的事情，以及一些做得相当不错的业务和领域，事实上，我们的投资组合在第四季度的收入增长超过了7%。随着成本的下降，我们看到了利润率的增长。我得说，我们对自己的投资组合总体感觉不错。我认为这是一个综合因素，正如我们已经谈到的，良好的潜在经济增长，正确的行业，以及现在更有利的资本市场环境，通货膨胀和利率正在下降。这让我们有了一些信心。事情会发生变化，就像我们去年看到的那样，在去年3月，随着夏末银行危机的爆发，利率上升。但当我们今天坐着的时候，我们感觉很好。因此，我认为，就你所拥有的资产和持有的资产而言，这将使你达到相对的信心水平，我相信，因此我们仍然对私募股权的前景感到相当乐观。
接线员:我们请杰弗里斯公司的丹·范农接电话。
丹·范农:我的问题是关于BXPE的，我希望能谈谈这个产品的潜在市场。我相信一开始你通常会拥有独家分销关系。所以你想知道什么时候它会被广泛使用以及它的潜在规模是怎样的?
苏世民:我想先从个人投资者的背景说起。我们在过去的电话会议上讨论过这个问题，但全球有大约80万亿美元的财富，那些拥有超过100万美元可投资资产的人。我们估计大约有1%的资金分配给了其他选择。对于机构客户，我们称之为29%或30%。我们认为这有很大的增长空间。显然，我们的私人房地产工具和私人信贷工具取得了成功，表现强劲。我们认为，私募股权工具是自然发展的方向。我们的战略是广泛的，正如我们在电话中所说的，不仅仅是传统的公司私募股权，还有战术机会，二级市场，增长，生命科学，这些都是我们广泛平台的优势。因此，当我们展望未来时，我们认为个人投资者将作出反应。当然，这是我们如何随时间传递的函数。最初，我们以13亿美元的首笔交易获得了非常强劲的开局，这反映了我们多年来建立的关系。我认为昨天指出的一个有趣的事实是，在第一个交易日分配给BXPE的财务顾问中，85%已经分配给了BREIT，甚至更高的比例分配给了BCRED，这表明BREIT和BCRED之间的累积，表明我们的客户对我们感到非常忠诚。所以，事实上，我们拥有这些深厚的长期关系，我们已经建立了信心，我们已经交付了业绩。我认为这使我们在零售领域处于独特的地位。我们认为，以半流动性的形式创造进入私人股本的渠道将更具吸引力。在个人投资者领域，仍会有投资者与我们一起投资回收型基金。当然，你不能在12年多的时间里收回所有的资金，而且它的结构有点不同。它适合较小的投资者群体。我们认为这个产品会有很大的接受度。我们必须像BREIT和BCRED那样，为客户提供服务。在我们这样做的过程中，我们认为这个产品可以发展到今天的规模，它在BREIT的股本为600亿美元，在BCRED的股本约为300亿美元，总资产为600亿美元。我们认为这个产品也有发展的机会。但我们必须为客户提供服务，走出去，参与进来，并随着时间的推移而做。
接线员:我们要找巴克莱银行的本·布迪什。
本·布迪什:我想问一下保险资金流入的问题。我想，首先，这个季度，你们的资金流入比第三季度增加了很多，我认为这比你们上个季度的预期要好得多。你在找年份。所以，有任何向前推进的力量吗?这是否改变了2024年的前景?然后从战术上考虑，你说你会在未来几年内达到2500亿美元?你能说得更具体一点吗?几个是什么意思?我们应该如何考虑这150亿美元，200亿美元在接下来的三四年?在我们微调模型的同时，我们应该如何思考这个问题?
Michael Chae:我认为，总的来说，我们的保险和信贷业务有很好的发展势头。然后，就实时而言，我们看到的利息流入。回答你的第一个问题，我不认为资本流入的驱动因素会从2025年开始。这是在信贷、保险、我们的保险客户、直接贷款之间的平衡攻击，我们在8万k中强调了这一点，75亿美元，不仅来自BCRED，还来自机构客户、我们的CLO平台或ABS平台等。所以这是一种非常多元化，平衡的策略。我认为，就资金流入而言，我们在保险领域看到，特别是在2023年早些时候，我们谈到了来自四大合作伙伴的250亿至300亿美元资金流入的总体范围和目标。实际上，我们的价格略高于这个区间的高端。今年，我只想说，作为起点，当然也是终点，但作为起点，我们看到这四个客户的基线预期流入在这个范围内或更好。
史蒂芬·施瓦茨曼:我想补充一点，鉴于我们的模式是一个开放的架构，有机会与其他个人保险客户(不一定是这四个大战略)进行sma，我们认为这个机会很重要。当然，我们也在寻找其他战略合作伙伴。我们的计划，如你所知，是经营轻资本保险业务，管理资金，并为各种各样的客户服务。鉴于我们在信贷质量和收益率溢价方面的表现，我们认为将吸引更多保险公司。所以这是一个我们相信有真正动力的领域。我们认为我们有多个增长引擎，我们将继续努力，拥有这四个主要客户非常有帮助。
接线员:接下来是KBW的迈克·布朗。
迈克尔·布朗:我只是想问一下房地产和信贷业务的费率。我们注意到，它们在第四季度有所下降，我们明白这是一种产出，每个季度都可能出现噪音。你认为这可能是进入2024年的正确起点吗?你能不能帮我们考虑一下费率较低的保险资产管理与费用较高的高净值资产管理流入之间的推拉关系在向前发展的基础上费率的混合?
Michael Chae:我认为，总的来说，如果你看看整个公司，看看整个公司的平均管理费，我认为多年来一直非常稳定。如果你看最近，在上个季度，在你提到的特定领域，信用保险，如果你只是做数学计算，我认为它下降了一个基点。所以我认为它是相当稳定的，尽管增长趋势并不吸引人，而且我认为我们保险领域的高利润增长，确实带来了较低的加权平均管理费。因此，我认为在一定程度上，在过去的几年里，总利润被稀释或降低了，这很大程度上是保险资金的流动。显然，我们会接受它。如果你把保险解决方案业务排除在外，费率一直非常非常稳定。在房地产方面，我认为季度环比来看，Signature debt portfolio的影响正在显现，其实际可赚取的资产管理规模为170亿美元。这显然是一笔令人兴奋的交易。我们确实从这些资产中赚取了不同层次的费用。我们从投入的BREDS股权中赚取费用。我们从我们的共同投资资本中赚取不同的费用，然后从资产组合中获得总体费用，这是一个较低的利率，这就是这种大规模债务/资产组合的运作方式。我认为，这是管理费用环比略有下降的最大原因。
接线员:接下来请沃尔夫研究公司的史蒂文·楚巴克发言。
Steven Chubak:我想问一个关于选举博弈论的问题。我知道，乔恩，你没有水晶球。你已经说过了。但考虑到特朗普和拜登再次对决的可能性、保护主义政策、能源转型、基础设施等方面的潜在变化，你提到了加快整个平台的部署。但在我们提高选举透明度之前，你认为会有不活跃的风险吗?它如何影响你管理投资组合的方法，以及你在不同策略中的干货?
乔纳森·格雷:嗯，我认为人们显然会高度关注选举，但我认为这不会阻止交易活动，特别是如果通货膨胀率继续下降，美联储开始降息的话。我认为这将是更积极的。有些部门或多或少会受到影响，这取决于哪个政党在这里获胜，尽管很有可能一个政党在总统职位上获胜，另一个政党可能在众议院等方面获胜，所以你最终会有一个分裂的政府，总体上政策变化更温和。我认为，从我们公司的角度来看，最重要的是要记住，当我们投资资本时，我们采取的是长期策略。我们尽量不被当天的新闻所吸引。如果你看看我们的公司，从史蒂夫在这里创立以来的近40年里，我们在政府中有蓝色，红色，紫色，我们在这些环境中为我们的客户提供服务。自2007年以来，我们一直为股东提供服务。我们不认为会有什么不同。但我认为，交易活动将更多地与美联储的活动联系在一起，而不是与选举联系在一起。对我们来说，这是一种长期的方法，但同时也要关注那些政治上更敏感的领域。但是，总的来说，如果我们认为现在是部署资本的好时机，我们就不会让选举前景劝阻我们。
接线员:下一个问题是考恩的威廉·卡茨。
威廉·卡茨:也许要回到信用平台上一段时间。因此，我很欣赏你在那里设置了一个多向量的机会，但市场上围绕直接贷款的前景存在一些争论，鉴于银行系统周围的问题可能因此开始趋于稳定。所以银团贷款市场有所回升。从单位增长和利差两方面来看，你认为它在直接贷款机会方面是如何发挥作用的，感谢你在市场上有一只非常大的基金，但从竞争和回报的角度来看，你更广泛地思考它是如何发挥作用的。
苏世民:我认为，特别是在直接贷款方面，今天有更多的资本进入市场。正如你所说，银行正在复苏。尽管他们对长时间桥接事物的兴趣还是有点有限。还有其他参与者进入了直接贷款领域。好消息是，回到之前的话题，我们看到交易活动有所回升。因此，尽管这里的资本供应可能正在回升，但我认为对资本的需求将会增长。我还想特别说的是，对于我们来说，拥有超过1000亿美元的空间，我们能够开出非常大的支票是一个非常重要的竞争优势。所以，事实上，我们可以通过我们的各种私人工具，我们的bdc，自己承诺数十亿美元的交易，这真的很有帮助。从结构上讲，我认为直接贷款的竞争优势在于我们给借款人的能力。当然，从银行的角度来看，他们必须有一些灵活性，因为他们想要发行这些债券。他们不想承担损失。我们，因为我们从事存储业务，可以为借款人提供确定性。因此，特别是在新贷款方面，我们认为这是一个直接贷款将继续强劲发展的领域。我们认为交易活动的增加将对这方面有所帮助。我们认为我们的规模肯定会有所帮助。所以，是的，我认为环境确实变得更有竞争力了。好消息是，现在的信贷质量仍然很好。去年我们直接贷款的平均贷款价值比只有40%，是15年前的零头。你看看我们的直接贷款组合，违约几乎不存在，这是非常了不起的。因此，该平台似乎处于良好状态。可能会有更多的资本进入这个领域，但我认为也会有更多的交易。这是积极的一面。
接线员:我们的最后一个问题来自法国巴黎银行的阿尔诺·吉布拉特。
Arnaud Giblat:我想知道您是否可以讨论一下2024年BREIT和BPP的绩效费相关收入前景，考虑到您所说的多户家庭的高水平竞争以及这对租金增长的影响?此外，考虑到美国利率可能下降，我们应该如何看待估值上限较低的可能性与对冲工具的走势?
史蒂芬·施瓦茨曼:我想说的是，我回到了我们之前讨论过的大问题，我们确实认为我们看到了价值的触底，但我们不认为这是某种形状的复苏。所以，对我们来说，我们已经说过，我们认为现在是部署的好时机。准确地指出价值将会走向何方，这很难做到。但利率下降，新供应下降肯定对该行业有帮助。我想说的是，我预计今年肯定会更好，这是我对估值相对于2023年的预期。但要准确预测它的着陆地点，我认为在今年年初很难做到这一点，但地面上正在发生一些好的基本事情。
接线员:我们的问答环节到此结束。我想把电话交给韦斯顿·塔克做补充或总结发言。
韦斯顿·塔克:太好了。感谢大家今天的参与，并期待电话会议后的跟进。
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